Sunday, January 11, 2009

Whats on the next curve?

Maybe the oldest invention that was good for mankind was fire(leaving the accident of agriculture and Darwin's evolution behind).It made man a civilized beast and he could control one of the forces of nature.In Indian mythology fire was regarded as god and was said to be intermediary between the humans and the gods, i.e.whatever was offered as sacrifice to fire was supposed to reach the heavens.It provided warmth,kept wild animals away,was useful in slash and burn agriculture etc.
The next major invention to occur was wheel.It helped man to conquer distances and also led to mass exodus of population.The aryans were said to move from central europe to indian subcontinent destroying a far greater civilisation than their's(Harrapa & Mohenjadaro which saw town planning to such a great extent not seen even now in India).
The next major shift seems to be the clamour for religion and feudal age.Suddenly every one wanted one world religion and the the rise of christianity is associated with one of the worst phases of human civilisation - the dark ages.Every independent thought was to be muffled. Muslim religion also followed the same path and arab world which was scientifically open also closed down.The age of Ibn Batuta,Ibn baruni etc. came to an end.

Luckily the only constant in world is change and it doesn't wait for anyone.
The next major change occured when man tapped the power of steam thereby giving rise to the industrial revolution.It changed the face of the world completely.It also gave rise to colonism and the middle class.
Next in line were the methods of communication and transportation.Telegraph and railways made a near simultaneous appearance and shrunk the world furthur.The remaining nail in the coffin was put by aeroplanes and telephones.
The period also saw one of the worst periods of living- accentuated by two world wars.clearly the twentieth century was the most disturbed in the history of mankind.
The next major shift occured when communication convergence occured.During this time advancements made in telecommunications, satellites and computer came together to give a completely new face to society nesseciating the coining of the word "digital age ". This led to a complete change in the rules of the game.What the invention of writing and printing could not do in millenia, the digital age did in decades. It brought people of all nationality together on a common platform and it also taught them to question.
This is where our story ends.We are still in the throes of the digital revolution with changes occuring at a very rapid pace.But no disruptive innovation has occured that can change the face of earth(leaving nuclear bombs and climatic changes aside). No new technology has come up that can take human civilisation to the next curve.Biotechnology and Nanotechnology were supposed to be the next things,but they have remained just that - next things for the past quarter of century. Quantum computers are also supposed to be the next generation technology but they are not practical in real worlds.Robotics and artificial intelligence havn't reached the pinnacle they were supposed to.

So,my point is, what lies ahead? Which new technology has the potential to change the contours of global village?where will it come from?Will it be the one that will promote equality between countries or will only widen the gap between have and have nots?
I eagerly wait for the advent of some new technology.I believe we are living in the most exciting times.The amount of changes and the amount of freedom we are seeing is unheralded.What lies in future....Who knows?

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